Previous studies have used GEOS-Chem to model the health impacts of particulate matter, and its results have been validated against surface, aircraft, and space-based observations around the world.įor a global model, GEOS-Chem has high spatial resolution, meaning the researchers could divide the globe into a grid with boxes as small as 50 km x 60 km and look at pollution levels in each box individually. To overcome this challenge, the Harvard researchers turned to GEOS-Chem, a global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry led at SEAS by Daniel Jacob, the Vasco McCoy Family Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and Environmental Engineering. “It is challenging for satellites to distinguish between types of particles, and there can be gaps in the data.” Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and co-author of the study. Mickley, Senior Research Fellow in Chemistry-Climate Interactions at the Harvard John A. “With satellite data, you’re seeing only pieces of the puzzle,” said Loretta J. The problem is, satellite and surface observations can’t tell the difference between particles from fossil fuel emissions and those from dust, wildfire smoke or other sources. Previous research relied on satellite and surface observations to estimate the average global annual concentrations of airborne particulate matter, known as PM 2.5. How did the researchers arrive at such a high number of fossil-fuel-caused deaths? The findings underscore the detrimental impact of fossil fuels on global health.
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The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study, the largest and most comprehensive study on the causes of global mortality, put the total number of global deaths from all outdoor airborne particulate matter - including dust and smoke from wildfires and agricultural burns - at 4.2 million. The study greatly increases estimates of the numbers killed by air pollution. Regions with the highest concentrations of fossil fuel-related air pollution - including Eastern North America, Europe, and South-East Asia - have the highest rates of mortality, according to the study published in the journal Environmental Research. Researchers estimated that exposure to particulate matter from fossil fuel emissions accounted for 18 percent of total global deaths in 2018 - a little less than 1 out of 5. More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new research from Harvard University, in collaboration with the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London.